Scenario studio
Change the assumptions. Follow the consequences.
- Dispatch price
- —AUD/MWh
- Dispatch demand estimate
- —MW
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Scenario assumptions
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Scenario estimates from stated assumptions. Customer behaviour is not a calibrated prediction.
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109,528 eligible customers modelled at 25% uptake; the representative day (2027-03-01) has 48 half-hour positions. Pre-subsidy contribution is −A$185,067,445.95; that negative contribution is a modelled State CSO call of A$185,067,445.95, not a retailer loss (uncalibrated absolute; up A$483,015.56 versus the no-offer baseline).
Named scenario cases, not statistical confidence intervals.
Against no uptake
Same period and market assumptions. Compare the offer and staffing changes with the baseline.
| Economic measure | Baseline | Scenario | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue · excluding GST | $1.27B | $1.27B | -$463.69K |
| Service cost | $14.36M | $14.89M | $535.35K |
| Sales / acquisition cost | $2.04M | $2.04M | $0 |
| Bad-debt cost | $4.17M | $4.17M | $5.58K |
| Pre-subsidy contribution | -$184.58M | -$185.07M | -$483.02K |
Actions to evaluate
- Service CTS reduces contribution by A$535,346.65 versus the fixed baseline. Focus handling-time work on Inbound Voice, the largest activity at A$2,353,554.16 in 2026; preserve wrap time and fixed staffing in the estimate.
- Billed revenue reduces contribution by A$463,686.55 versus the fixed baseline. Test offer scope or pricing for West · Residential · basic · none · flat, whose contribution is −A$41,362,406.60; the effect of a new tariff has not been solved here.
- Set total AHT reduction to 3.47% (3.47 percentage points beyond the current control). Pinned CTS then lowers modelled service and acquisition cost by A$483,098.48, bringing contribution to −A$184,584,347.47 against the fixed baseline of −A$184,584,430.39. At 3.46%, contribution is still A$1,309.23 short. This is the minimum AHT-only result at 0.01-point resolution within the 90% bound; fixed staffing and wrap time are unchanged, and cash release requires a staffing decision.
What remains unknown
- CSO formula is not confirmed by EQ
- modelled customer data is for scenario rehearsal only
- Data pack acceptance check failed
Check the assumptions
Missing dependencyEQ confirmation of the CSO accounting formula
Smallest useful changeSet total AHT reduction to 3.47% (3.47 percentage points beyond the current control). Pinned CTS then lowers modelled service and acquisition cost by A$483,098.48, bringing contribution to −A$184,584,347.47 against the fixed baseline of −A$184,584,430.39. At 3.46%, contribution is still A$1,309.23 short. This is the minimum AHT-only result at 0.01-point resolution within the 90% bound; fixed staffing and wrap time are unchanged, and cash release requires a staffing decision.
Scenario sensitivityNeither of the two tested joint uptake, shift and price cases reverses the selected case's contribution direction; no reversal threshold was calculated.
- CSO formula is not confirmed by EQ
- modelled customer data is for scenario rehearsal only
- Data pack acceptance check failed